Namaskar,

Welcome to the fifth Chai & Charts, and a happy Dussehra week to you and your family. It was a short week, with markets shut on Tuesday, and a difficult one. The Nifty fell on all four trading days and lost 2.4%, as attacks on Saudi oil facilities pushed crude above $110 a barrel.

Mid and small caps fell much further, bond yields reached their highest level since March 2023, and gold and silver slipped too. This week's "Learn one thing" looks at the simple maths of a fall. Let's get into it.

Nifty 50, daily change (%)

Global markets & metals

1. Attacks on Saudi oil facilities sent crude higher

Attacks by Yemen's Houthis on Saudi Arabian energy facilities, including sites of the state oil company Aramco, raised fears about supply from the world's top oil exporter. Brent crude rose from around $108 a barrel on Monday to about $114 on Friday. India imports nearly 90% of its crude, so higher oil prices raise worries about inflation and company costs, and Reuters said the jump weighed on shares all week. Gold and silver fell as well, with domestic gold at about a three-month low, as markets expected interest rates to stay higher for longer. In the US, technology and chip shares fell sharply on Thursday, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 3.3% in the week to Thursday.

2. Bond yields at a three-year high; RBI says rate cuts are "off the table"

The minutes of the RBI's October policy meeting, released on Wednesday, showed why it raised the repo rate by 0.25 percentage point to 5.50% on 7 October, its first increase in nearly four years: inflation has been spreading to more items. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said rate cuts are off the table in the near term. The 10-year government bond yield closed at 7.44% on Wednesday, its highest since March 2023 (Reuters). The rupee ended the week almost where it started, at a provisional 94.93 per dollar on Friday (94.92 a week earlier), after falling more than 40 paise on Thursday as oil jumped. RBI data showed foreign exchange reserves fell by $5.01 billion to $721.02 billion in the week ended 16 October. The US 10-year yield, meanwhile, eased to 4.96% on Thursday.

3. Foreign investors kept selling; domestic money kept coming

Foreign investors sold a net ₹3,585 crore of Indian shares from Monday to Thursday: they sold on Monday and Thursday (₹3,459 crore on Thursday alone) and bought on Wednesday (provisional exchange data). That takes the provisional total for 1–22 October to about ₹52,354 crore. Domestic institutions bought about ₹7,707 crore over the same four days and about ₹55,875 crore so far this month. Friday's figures were not available when we finalised this issue. The latest AMFI data, for September, show monthly SIP contributions at a record ₹32,490 crore.

RBI: policy minutes explain the rate rise
Final · minutes released 21 October · repo rate 5.50% since 7 October

The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to raise the repo rate to 5.50% and changed its stance to "calibrated tightening", although two external members wanted to keep the stance neutral. The minutes note that more than a third of the items in the inflation basket were rising faster than 4% a year in August. For borrowers, a higher repo rate usually feeds through to loan rates over time; for savers, deposit rates tend to follow too.

SEBI: beware of stock-tip WhatsApp groups
Investor caution · 22 October

SEBI warned investors about unregistered people offering stock tips in invitation-only WhatsApp groups, often using overseas numbers, posing as experts and posting made-up profit screenshots. When a group is shut down, members are invited to a new one. SEBI's advice: don't act on such tips, don't send money to platforms these groups suggest, never share your trading account details, and deal only with SEBI-registered intermediaries. If you ever receive a message like this that uses our name, please check with us directly.

SEBI: margin relief after early delivery of shares sold
Final · circular dated 22 October · from 22 February 2027

When you sell shares and hand them over early (an "early pay-in"), your broker will not need to collect margin again for your next cash-market trades, up to the value of the shares already delivered. If the original sale is reversed, that credit is removed. This mainly concerns people who trade shares regularly; it does not change how mutual fund investments work.

Gold fund-of-funds: pause on fresh money continues
Fund house notices · since 15–16 October · temporary, no end date

The pause on lump sums, switch-ins, new SIPs and SIP top-ups in gold ETF fund-of-funds, which we covered last week, is still in place "until further notice". Reports put it at about 20 schemes across 17 fund houses. SIP instalments registered earlier, existing units and redemptions are not affected. There is still no public SEBI circular. If you have questions about your own investments, please call us.

Tax: reminder for audited taxpayers
Final · CBDT extension announced 29 September

For taxpayers whose accounts must be audited, the income tax return deadline for this assessment year (2026-27) has been extended to 21 November 2026. Please check with your CA whether this applies to you.

Last week one sector made the headlines. This week almost everything fell at once, and smaller companies fell the most. A week like this can be unsettling, so it helps to keep a few things in mind:

• Falls are part of investing in shares. Weeks like this have happened before and will happen again. Nobody can say in advance when they will come or how long they will last, which is why equity is meant for goals that are years away.
• Your portfolio is not the index. The Nifty fell 2.4% and small caps about 7%. How your own investments did depends on your mix, and a mix chosen for your goals and risk profile is built with weeks like this in mind.
• SIPs keep working quietly. When prices are lower, the same SIP amount buys more units. That is how averaging works over time. SIP does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
• Talk before you act. If this week has you thinking about stopping a SIP or changing your investments, call us first and we'll go through your plan together.

When something falls by a percentage, it takes a bigger percentage rise to get back to where it started. That's because the rise is worked out on a smaller amount. If ₹1,00,000 falls 20%, it becomes ₹80,000. To get back to ₹1,00,000 it needs to gain ₹20,000, and ₹20,000 is 25% of ₹80,000, not 20%. The bigger the fall, the wider the gap.

Here is the ₹1,00,000 example step by step:

That's all for this week. If you'd like to talk about anything here, just reply to this email or message us on WhatsApp. And if a friend or family member would find this useful, please forward it to them.

Warm regards,

Aniruddha Samdani
AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor · ARN-66087
www.asfinserv.co

Data sources: NSE and BSE closing data, 16–23 Oct 2026 (via Business Standard, 5paisa, Dhanarthi, Kotak Neo, IIFL); weekly change, sector, mid-cap and stock-level data (Reuters via Business Recorder, 23 Oct 2026); Nifty Smallcap 250 weekly fall (Bloomberg data via Business Today, 23 Oct 2026); Nasdaq 100 closes, 15 and 22 Oct 2026 (Nasdaq Global Indexes; Investing.com; investingLive); S&P 500 closes, 15 and 22 Oct 2026 (AP via ABC News and Yahoo Finance; investingLive); IBJA 999 gold and silver AM rates, 16 and 23 Oct 2026 (ibjarates.com; 5paisa; Goodreturns), cross-checked with MCX futures (Goodreturns, India TV, 23 Oct 2026); US 10-year yield (investingLive; Capp Notes, 22 Oct 2026); India 10-year yield (Reuters via Business Recorder, 21 Oct 2026; Trading Economics); RBI MPC minutes (21 Oct 2026, via PTI/Nagaland Post, Reuters, Trading Economics); rupee closing rates (PTI via The Federal, DT Next, Deccan Herald, 23 Oct provisional; PTI via Telangana Today, 22 Oct); Brent crude (PTI, Reuters, Oilprice.com, 22–23 Oct 2026; Kotak Neo, IIFL, 21–22 Oct 2026); Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities (Reuters; Oilprice.com, 23 Oct 2026); foreign exchange reserves (RBI, week ended 16 Oct 2026, via Business Standard, ThePrint); FII and DII daily data (provisional exchange data via Kotak Neo, PTI, Multibagg, 1–22 Oct 2026); AMFI monthly data (September 2026, via Zee Business, The Statesman); gold domestic price context (Business Today, 23 Oct 2026); Jio Platforms IPO (Chittorgarh, Business Today, 23 Oct 2026; Reuters); SEBI caution on WhatsApp groups (22 Oct 2026, via Business Standard); SEBI early pay-in margin circular (22 Oct 2026, via Business Today, NiftyTrader); S&P 500 close of 15 Oct re-checked (AP via Yahoo Finance); gold fund-of-funds pause (The Core, Cafemutual, 23 Oct 2026); CBDT ITR deadline extension (29 Sep 2026, via All India Radio News, Angel One); Muhurat trading timings (NSE notice via Outlook Money, Business Today, 19 Oct 2026); US Federal Reserve meeting calendar; NSE holiday list; RBI MPC schedule. All figures are as of the dates mentioned and may be revised by the source.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for general information and investor education only. It is not investment, tax or legal advice, and it does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, mutual fund scheme, gold or silver product, overseas investment or insurance product. Views on markets are general and do not take into account any individual's objectives, financial situation or needs. Illustrations use assumed figures and are not forecasts. Aniruddha Samdani Finserv is an AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor (ARN-66087) and may earn commission on mutual fund investments made through it. Please consult your tax consultant/CA on tax matters.

SIP does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme-related documents carefully before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.