Namaskar,

Welcome to the second Chai & Charts. It was a four-day week: markets were closed on Friday, 2 October for Gandhi Jayanti, so all closing figures below are as of Thursday, 1 October.

The Nifty fell on all four days and ended lower for an eighth straight week, its longest such run since 2001. US bond yields touched their highest level since 2002, crude oil stayed around $100, and the rupee slipped past 96 to the dollar. Next week, all eyes are on the RBI. Let's get into it.

Nifty 50, daily change (%)

1. US bond yields at their highest since 2002

The global bond sell-off we wrote about last week carried on. On Thursday, the US 10-year government bond yield touched 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. Reuters reported that July–September saw the biggest quarterly rise in US bond yields this century. Higher yields on US bonds tend to pull some global money away from emerging markets such as India. India's own 10-year government bond yield rose to about 7.21% on Thursday, its highest in more than two years.

2. Crude oil stayed high and the rupee crossed 96

Over the weekend, the US President rejected a proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for the world's oil. Brent crude jumped to about $107 a barrel on Monday morning, then eased to around $100 by Thursday. India imports most of its oil, so expensive crude puts pressure on the rupee and on inflation. The rupee closed at 96.31 per US dollar on Thursday (provisional), down 37 paise on the day and its weakest level in over two months.

3. Foreign investors stepped up their selling

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) took out ₹35,860 crore from Indian equities in September, after investing in both July and August. Their withdrawals in 2026 now add up to about ₹2.6 lakh crore. On Tuesday and Wednesday alone they sold a net ₹9,980 crore and ₹10,148 crore (provisional exchange data). On the other side, the latest AMFI figures show monthly SIP contributions at a record ₹32,297 crore in August. September's SIP numbers are due later this month.

Small savings rates unchanged (final · 30 September)

The government has kept interest rates on small savings schemes the same for October–December 2026. PPF stays at 7.1%, NSC at 7.7% and Sukanya Samriddhi at 8.2%.

Tax: more time for audit cases (final · 28 September)

For taxpayers whose accounts need a tax audit (assessment year 2026-27), the CBDT has moved the tax audit report deadline from 30 September to 21 October 2026, and the return filing deadline from 31 October to 21 November 2026. Please check with your CA on how this applies to you.

RBI eases bank shareholding approvals (final · 1 October)

Mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds can now get a one-time RBI approval to own up to 10% of a bank, instead of applying again each time their holding crosses 5%. This was first proposed as a draft in July. It is an operational change for institutions and needs no action from investors.

SEBI on foreign investor registration (a statement, not a new rule · 30 September)

SEBI's chairman said SEBI and the RBI are working to make it faster and fully digital for foreign portfolio investors to register in India, and that registration within five working days has been tested for some countries.

Reminder: IRDAI's proposals on insurance distribution, covered last week, are still a draft. Public comments are open until 25 October 2026.

Eight weeks of falling prices is uncomfortable, and it's natural to want to do something. Before you do, a few points are worth keeping in mind:

• A streak tells you about the past, not the future. Nobody knows whether next week will be the ninth fall or the first rise, and a plan shouldn't depend on guessing.
• Losses feel bigger than gains. Research on investor behaviour has long found that a loss hurts more than an equal gain pleases. Knowing this helps you separate how a week feels from what it changes about your goals.
• Check your plan, not the headlines. The useful questions are whether your goals, time horizon and mix of equity, debt and gold still match your needs and your comfort with risk.
• Talk before you act. If the last two months have made you uneasy, that's a good reason to call us and review things together before making any change.

You'll hear the words "repo rate" a lot next week. The repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to banks. It is currently 5.25%. Think of it as the RBI's main lever: when it moves, other interest rates in the economy tend to follow.

The decision is taken by the RBI's six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which meets every two months. Its job is to keep inflation close to a 4% target while also keeping growth in mind. Retail inflation was 4.82% in August.

That's all for this week. If you'd like to talk about anything here, just reply to this email or message us on WhatsApp. And if a friend or family member would find this useful, please forward it to them.

Warm regards,

Aniruddha Samdani
Aniruddha Samdani Finserv
AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor · ARN-66087
www.asfinserv.co

Data sources: NSE and BSE closing data, 28 Sep–1 Oct 2026 (via Business Standard, Moneycontrol, HDFC Sky); weekly streak data (Business Standard, 1 Oct 2026); US Treasury yields (Reuters, 1 Oct 2026); India 10-year yield (Trading Economics, 1 Oct 2026); Brent crude (Reuters, 28 Sep; Business Standard and PTI, 1 Oct 2026); rupee closing rate and FII daily data (PTI, provisional, 1 Oct 2026); FPI flow data for September (depositories, via PTI and Business Today); AMFI monthly data (August 2026); HSBC India Manufacturing PMI (1 Oct 2026); GST collections (Government of India, 1 Oct 2026); small savings rates (Ministry of Finance, 30 Sep 2026); CBDT press release (28 Sep 2026); RBI directions on bank shareholding (1 Oct 2026); SEBI chairman's remarks (Business Standard, 30 Sep 2026); retail inflation and RBI poll (Business Standard, 2 Oct 2026); US Federal Reserve calendar; NSE holiday list. All figures are as of the dates mentioned and may be revised by the source.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for general information and investor education only. It is not investment, tax or legal advice, and it does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, mutual fund scheme or insurance product. Views on markets are general and do not take into account any individual's objectives, financial situation or needs. Aniruddha Samdani Finserv is an AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor (ARN-66087) and may earn commission on mutual fund investments made through it. Please consult your tax consultant/CA on tax matters.

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Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme-related documents carefully before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.