Namaskar,

Welcome to the third Chai & Charts. After eight weekly falls in a row, the Nifty ended this week a little higher. It was a bumpy ride, though: two good days, two poor ones, and a strong recovery on Friday.

The main event came on Wednesday, when the RBI raised the repo rate for the first time since February 2023. Crude oil stayed above $100, the rupee weakened further, and foreign investors kept selling. Let's get into it.

Nifty 50, daily change (%)

1. The RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50%

On Wednesday, 7 October, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to raise the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.25% to 5.50%. It is the first increase since February 2023. The committee also changed its stance from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening", though two members wanted to stay neutral, and the Governor said the next move can only be another increase or a pause. The reason is inflation: the RBI now expects prices to rise 5.2% this financial year (5.0% earlier) and about 6% in October–December. It also raised its growth forecast for the year to 7.1% from 6.7%. India's 10-year government bond yield rose to about 7.3%, its highest since December 2023 and roughly 0.09 percentage points higher over the week (Reuters).

2. Crude oil swung above $100 and the rupee slipped

Brent crude began the week at around $102.5 a barrel, jumped more than 4% on Thursday to above $104 after attacks on ships in the Gulf, and eased to about $103 on Friday after the US President said the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November mid-term elections. The rupee fell 40 paise on Wednesday to 96.75 per US dollar, slipped to 96.88 on Thursday and recovered to 96.72 on Friday (provisional). RBI data showed India's foreign exchange reserves at $734.6 billion in the week ended 2 October, a fourth weekly fall in a row and about $50 billion below their September peak. In the US, the 10-year government bond yield stayed close to 5.3% (5.28% on Wednesday, US Federal Reserve data).

3. Foreign investors kept selling

Foreign investors were net sellers of Indian shares on each of the first four days of the week, about ₹26,725 crore in all (provisional exchange data). Thursday alone saw ₹12,944 crore of selling, the largest single-day figure since 29 May, while domestic institutions bought ₹10,703 crore that day. Friday's figure was not available when we finalised this issue. Including 1 October, the provisional total for October so far is about ₹36,210 crore. On the other side, the latest AMFI figures show monthly SIP contributions of ₹32,297 crore in August. September's SIP numbers had not been published when we finalised this issue.

RBI: bank deposits in your consolidated statement (announced · 7 October · not yet in force)

Along with the rate decision, the RBI said depositories will be able to show your bank deposit details in the Consolidated Account Statement (CAS), next to your demat holdings, through the Account Aggregator system, which works only with the customer's consent. Customers will also be able to use any Account Aggregator of their choice to see and share their financial information. Both changes are to be in place by 31 December 2026.

SEBI: a Credit Risk-o-Meter for bonds (final · circular dated 7 October)

SEBI has made a colour-coded "Credit Risk-o-Meter" compulsory for bonds and other listed debt securities. It turns credit ratings, from AAA down to D, into six levels, from green for the lowest credit risk to red for a high to very high risk of default. It must be shown in offer documents, in advertisements and on online bond platforms, and takes effect 45 days after the circular. Mutual fund schemes already carry their own, separate risk-o-meter.

GST Council: process changes, no rate changes (recommendations · 8 October)

The GST Council met on 8 October and recommended a set of changes to make compliance simpler, such as faster refunds and easier registration. It did not change any GST rates. These are recommendations and apply only once they are notified. If you run a business, please check with your CA on what applies to you.

Reminders: IRDAI's proposals on insurance distribution are still at the consultation stage, with public comments open until 25 October 2026. The extended deadline for tax audit reports is 21 October 2026.

After eight falling weeks, a week that ends higher is a relief. It is also a good time to remember that the same rules apply on the way up as on the way down:

• One week tells you very little. A small weekly gain doesn't mean the difficult phase is over, just as eight falls didn't mean it would never end. Nobody knows which way next week will go, and a plan shouldn't depend on guessing.
• Watch out for the pull of the latest news. We all give too much weight to whatever happened most recently. On Thursday the mood was gloomy and by Friday evening it was cheerful. Your goals did not change in those 24 hours.
• A rate rise has practical effects worth checking. If you have a floating-rate loan, your lender may change the EMI or the tenure, and deposit rates can change over time too. Your bank can tell you what applies to you.
• Talk before you act. If this week's swings or the rate rise have raised questions about your investments, call us and we'll go through your plan together before you make any change.

The RBI raised rates this week because of inflation, which is the pace at which prices rise over time. In India it is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of a basket of things households buy, such as food, fuel, clothing, housing and services. Retail inflation was 4.82% in August, against the RBI's target of 4%. September's figure is due on Monday.

This matters to investors because what counts is not the number on your statement but what that money can buy. That is the idea of the real return: roughly, what you earn minus inflation.

That's all for this week. If you'd like to talk about anything here, just reply to this email or message us on WhatsApp. And if a friend or family member would find this useful, please forward it to them.

Warm regards,

Aniruddha Samdani
Aniruddha Samdani Finserv
AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor · ARN-66087
www.asfinserv.co

Data sources: NSE and BSE closing data, 5–9 Oct 2026 (via Business Standard, Kotak Neo, HDFC Sky, PTI); weekly change and streak data (Reuters, 9 Oct 2026); RBI Monetary Policy Statement and Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies (7 Oct 2026); India 10-year yield (Reuters, 9 Oct; Business Standard, 7–8 Oct 2026); US Treasury yields (US Federal Reserve H.15, 7 Oct 2026); Brent crude (PTI, 5–9 Oct; Kotak Neo, 8–9 Oct; Reuters, 9 Oct 2026); rupee closing rates (PTI, 7–9 Oct 2026; 9 Oct provisional); foreign exchange reserves (RBI, week ended 2 Oct 2026, via Business Today); FII and DII daily data (provisional exchange data via PTI, 1–8 Oct 2026); FPI flow data for September (depositories); AMFI monthly data (August 2026); US jobs report (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2 Oct 2026, via Yahoo Finance); US Federal Reserve minutes (7 Oct 2026, via Yahoo Finance) and meeting calendar; HSBC India Services PMI (6 Oct 2026, via Business Standard); SEBI circular on the Credit Risk-o-Meter (7 Oct 2026); GST Council, 57th meeting (8 Oct 2026, via India Briefing); IRDAI consultation paper; CBDT press release (28 Sep 2026); retail inflation (Ministry of Statistics, August 2026); US CPI release schedule; NSE holiday list. All figures are as of the dates mentioned and may be revised by the source.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for general information and investor education only. It is not investment, tax or legal advice, and it does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, mutual fund scheme or insurance product. Views on markets are general and do not take into account any individual's objectives, financial situation or needs. Illustrations use assumed figures and are not forecasts. Aniruddha Samdani Finserv is an AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor (ARN-66087) and may earn commission on mutual fund investments made through it. Please consult your tax consultant/CA on tax matters.

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